During the Depression, It Was What? 25%.

Q: I read a thread like this, and am amazed that ANY of you people are investing in the market. I know some of you are making money by shorting, but geez! How do you keep from jumping off a bridge?

A: I've been trading stocks for more than forty one years now, vater49.
To be sure, my long stocks percentage at 42.55% now is about as low
as it has been in nearly all of that 41+ years (there are always
exceptions such as decades ago when I was doing a mutual fund
switching program of my own devise which involved 70% of my total
assets, bu

t in general I have been around 95% long most of the time).
So (1) I recognize the nature of the problems, (2) I keep my risk
exposure moderate in total, (3) I focus on distinguishing those
things which might survive from those which probably won't. Ptui!
on jumping off bridges or the ledges of tall buildings. I've been
at this trading biz wwwaaaayyy too many years for such childish
responses to be in my repertoire.

You're getting TOWARDS the point that I was trying to make. Hopes
and expectations are unrealistic almost by definition in a situation
where the only thing we know for sure is "The market will continue
to fluctuate". The reason for formulating "scenarios" about the
future, which is by definition unknowable, is to explore the bases
for whatever policy decisions we have made, are making, or might in
the future want to make. What you have noticed is simply a shift in
the balance of power between the raving lemmings of the Internet
Mania years and the raving lemmings of the current goldbug era (when
nearly all of the current negatives were already extant and the
future realizable negatives are already extent) towards a shred
more realism about the policies and practices that *others*, such
as the Frauderal goobermint, have been making against our legitimate
interests. Actually it is BECAUSE there are so many and so serious
a set of negatives working against us that it is necessary to "plan
for the future".
Yeah prophets, I say unto you, verily there are prophets to be
taken and prophets to be gleaned but unless you plan and have some
notion of what is to be prophesied and profited from, you ain't got
a shred of a hope nor expectations. Good grief! I'm sounding like
the Pidman.