Marvin's Weekly Comment
Q: From looking at the charts I see - Dow and nasdaz are powering up as usual - various stocks making good progress - look at HC my aussie stocks - bil and cpu have been taking a breather last week - ready for another run up I hope.
A:
1) The secular bear market in stocks is going to switch to a bull.
2) The bear market in the dollar is going to switch to a bull.
3) The bull market in gold is going to switch to a bear.
Most of these are decent points Marvin. I think equities' markets may be due
to check back down in the near future, but should be in context of puttin
higher low in place. Theres no reason to go long on the dollar now, but it is showing
signs of being overextended. I think you got this one right too in the long
term. Gold? hmm.... big trading range seems most likely scenario... doubt
it's going anywhere fast. Oil has NOT been boring! lol. It's tightly wound
and setup for a good entry here.
People forget the market turns months before the data comes in line.
There's good reason to believe the market has bottomed. Either way,
it doesn't matter. As long as it moves we'll make money!
No more dangerous than anything else IF you control leverage properly.
That's where some people get it trouble "hmmm... with my $5000 account I
could trade like 20 corn contracts"... of course if you use full leverage
you can wipe an account out overnight. We always carefully control risk on
longer term trades so that no more than 1.5% of our total trading equity is
at risk on any trade, and on some much, much lower. Shorter term trades
were above 75% accuracy, so we use a LITTLE higher leverage, but still no
more than 3% of equity. You'll still get nasy price shocks and surprises
sometimes, so you have to account for those somehow.
Imo, these are just another trading vehicle (with the potential for
dangerous leverage, yes)... one of the misconceptions fostered on the public
is that stocks are somehow "safe". I know lots of friends who've gone bust
trading stocks so it ain't true (and most refusing to play the short side
too, so it's not shorting that's dangerous). It's extremely important to
find the game that's right for you and clicks for you psychologically.
Unless you do that, you aren't likely to make consistent profits over the
long haul.