Lets Go Man! Start Buying...
Q: I've got current, long term support somewhere between 6500 and 6000, but sentiment's so bad, I don't expect it will do a quick reversal. If we're lucky, it'll slog around at that level while it builds some big money support, which it doesn't have now.
A:
If you look at technical indicators (devised by really smart guys), the
money flow has just been pegged on tilt for waaay too long. Every
retirement fund likes CALPERS and in house company stock buying plans and
proliferation of investment groups. The buying has stuffed the market
for too many years. In November, when there were big sellof
somebody sold a big chunk of their positions and MADE A SHITLOAD of
profit. First in, first out. Those sold off shares were as profitable as
hell. That profit will wait for the money flow to deflate. Why
shouldn't they? That profit money will wait to get in at stoopid low,
deflated prices, and I suspect it won't be back into the financials.
That ship has sailed. A new round of "ooh neato, next big thing" stocks
will begin the new phase of another bubble.
As usual. But as you know I like massive data points and numbers, so
the vast majority of my money is dedicated to whole sectors on long
time lines. More data points makes the stats work better, charts
easier to understand, market direction harder to change...blah blah.
If I was playing with my gamblers money on individual stocks probably
I'd be in healthcare, metals, education, food, the normal counter-
cyclicals. I haven't really had the opportunity, but had fun trading them
recently. Hopefully I'll get back to trading individual shares at some
point along the way. It's the most fun, better than Blackjack.