Tata Motors Losses.....Re: More Against Globalization
Q: I think its too early to tell about anything, but what comes up in the media is that all the usual Asian measures (which most of the time don't even report on India, but HK, Jap, China, Singa, Philipines, etc.) show Asian economies are dropping faster and farther.
A:
1. If the US stocks start a slow decline like '29-'31 (maybe not till
second half).
2. If the unemployment keeps going up or flattens out (not before second
half).
3. Retail sales (if they keep going down instead of leveling off by second
half).
4. Acceleration in bank failures (it will really be bad if they use up
all of
Might be a couple other indicators, like housing sales and prices.
Chrysler and GM are almost on their deathbeds. I don't see how they can
avoid big big layoffs, and parts supply chains. They are just going to save
the executive jobs with the bailouts. I wouldn't be surprised if some
private equity gets in there and buys them up, and reorganizes and as a new
corporation, they'll then blow up all the union contracts and hire all new people
(typical big corporation screw-the-underlings strategy) at lower wages, and
they won't have any problem getting them.
You'd better be hoping that the bailouts do some good, because the sooner
the USA gets out of this, the sooner the rest of the world gets out of it.
Me, I'm not really happy about the bailouts, but I'd rather have them than
have the govt sit around doing nothing. National debt - not that I like
it - does give governments some wiggle room in dealing with these
problems. IMF, etc., bailed out the Asian economic crisis of '97-'98, and
US Feds bailed out Mexico back in '82. There were other local economic
crisis, too (Russian default of '92). England had the first central bank
in 1694 AD, and they aren't about to close it down.
At least most of the big muck-mucks at all the central banks are pretty
much in agreement that they have to do some kind of bailout. China is said
to be pumping in some $500 bil of their own, which is bigger than ours if
you look and see that their GDP is only 1/3 our size.