8 Trading Days Until Crash Low

Q: There's one thing you are forgetting about. If the stock market's behavior now is like its behavior then, then its behavior now should be novel and without exact precedent, because it was then. If its behavior now has exact precedent in the market of 1929, then its behavior now is not like its behavior then. Thus, you can not extrapolate from its behavior in 1929 to its behavior now, because either its behavior was novel then and is not now, or its behavior was novel then and is novel now. Probably the latter is the case, as it is highly unlikely that the market would behave today exactly as it did in 1929.

A: God, the doomsday speaker is back. As I posted a week or so ago about
the economic conditions that differ now, as well as the speed and flow
of information, there is not a snowball's chance in hell that we will
see the type of market collapse of which you speak.

If the market were to crash in the exact manner you are stipulating,
the D

OW would have to retrace about 6,000 points or more in a single
day (because you must look at the percentage differences of the time
period if you are going to compare apples to apples). No matter how
bad a crash (of which I think we are simply not going to see for
several years due to our strong economy), a 6,000 point correction is
impossible as the market will close after a 10% decline (I believe
that is the current circuit breaker).


Do you understand that now Tom? Also, even if the DOW corrected 500
to 1000 points in one day, it is unlikely that the market would remain
there or continue south at this time. The market conditions for a
bear market cycle usually are preceded by an inflationary period in
the economy. Right now, there is no sign of inflation.


In a market like this anything can happen. If the multitude decides to leave
the market which could occur stopping trading will not help everyone will
still want to get out.

There are those of us who are urging caution and prudence in this market.
Are we envious of those who are chalking up huge gains? Yes of course, but
we believe you are taking huge risks. If you are willing to take huge risks
in the market there are much better ways than to take a position in a stock
portfolio of three or four stocks or ask in this news group how can I double
my money I have $500 to invest.